Is there a link between climate change and the energy sector? What challenges and what opportunities come with the transition towards renewable sources? How much public awareness is there? We discussed all this with climatologist Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Society and author of Breve storia del clima in Italia
(“A Brief History of the Climate in Italy”, published by Einaudi), who gave us an analysis of the impact of climate change in Italy and its consequences, with a particular focus on repercussions in the energy sector. From predictions on extreme weather events to an analysis of the challenging pathway towards energy transition, Mercalli illustrated his point of view with an emphasis on the importance of awareness and spreading scientific knowledge.
What makes Italy and the Mediterranean a “climate hotspot”: an interview with Luca Mercalli
The climatologist discusses the energy transition and the impacts of global warming, plus extreme weather events, an analysis of their consequences and their impact on the resilience of electricity grids.
We are currently witnessing an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. What are your most immediate predictions for Italy? And what will the impacts be on the energy sector?
«Global warming is a physical phenomenon that has been documented for over a century. All the extreme events that we are already aware of will become more frequent and more intense in the future, by which I mean floods, strong winds, drought, heat waves and forest fires. Another highly significant phenomenon, even if it will be of little relevance to the electricity grid, is rising sea levels. Although sea levels have remained stable in recent millennia, they are now set to rise again as they did at the end of the last ice age, over 10,000 years ago, threatening all coastal zones.
Extreme weather events will grow in frequency and intensity due to global warming. This is because, on the one hand, there is more energy in the atmosphere which must be dissipated or discharged through more powerful phenomena; on the other hand, the oceans heating up leads to greater evaporation, which in turn results in heavier precipitation.
The Mediterranean is particularly exposed, as a small basin — one could almost call it a vast lake — which means that it heats up far more rapidly than the oceans do. Moreover, proximity to the Sahara desert results in hot air expanding easily towards the north, even beyond the Alps. These two factors — a small sea and the roasting hot Sahara — mean that the Mediterranean and the entire region heat up far more quickly than the rest of the planet. While the average increase in global temperature over the last century and a half has been 1.4 °C, the figure has been 2.4 °C in Italy. In other words, it’s no coincidence that the Mediterranean basin has been defined a “climate hotspot” in all international climate studies. This has been caused by the factors I’ve mentioned in combination with high population density and the presence of historic cities, which make the region particularly vulnerable, including in terms of its artistic heritage.»
So what impacts do you anticipate this will have on the energy sector?
«There are many impacts on the energy sector, affecting both the production and the transport of energy. In 2022, for example, an unprecedented drought in Northern Italy and in the Alps created a crisis for the hydroelectric and agricultural system, drying out reservoirs. If droughts in the future last even longer, this will pose risks for hydroelectric production and for the cooling of the thermoelectric power stations found along the rivers. Floods, which is to say the opposite of droughts, will also take their toll, damaging hydroelectric infrastructure. Just think of the problems caused by the flood on 29 June 2024 in Valle d’Aosta, where a basin like the Place-Moulin had landslide problems due to the collapse of glacier moraines. These days, it rains in places where it once snowed, and the rain brings detritus with it into the reservoirs.
Floods can damage transformation cabins and the stability of pylons. The Romagna floods of 2023-2024 caused almost 10 billion euros in damage, including energy infrastructure. Another problem is that of storms, formerly mainly a summer phenomenon but which now also take place in spring and autumn. Their increased intensity leads to a greater number of lightning strikes, increasing the risk to electrical infrastructure.
Freezing rain is a phenomenon which is becoming more frequent. It describes rain that falls on surfaces at temperatures below zero degrees, forming a layer of ice that can cause tonnes of weight to build up on cables and pylons. What’s more, increasing wind speeds, with events like Storm Adrian in 2018, can damage pylons. While infrastructure is designed to resist very strong winds, we might begin seeing new events in areas which were not previously considered to be at risk.»
Italy’s National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (NIECP) and the European decarbonisation targets are ambitious. What role does Italy have to play in achieving these targets?
«Italy has done excellent work in the energy production sector, where it has begun decarbonising and spreading renewable energy. On the other hand, emissions are continuing to grow in sectors like transport and construction, and we are lagging far behind. The energy sector has shown great results and must continue to work on decarbonisation and on the dissemination of renewable sources, as it is already doing.»
The Italian model for energy development is shifting towards renewable sources, which are heavily dependent on weather conditions (sun, wind). How can this transition be managed in order to minimise the risks of interruption and to guarantee service continuity?
«In addition to technological developments like storage and the proper integration of hydroelectrics, which boost grid resilience, meteorology can come to our aid. At present, weather forecasts are highly reliable and are already being used to predict loads on the electricity grid.
A particularly cold day in winter, or a particularly hot one in summer, increases the demand for energy to be used for either heating or cooling. When these events are forecast, even four or five days in advance, it helps grid operators to programme loads. At the same time, forecasts also help to estimate the available quantities of solar and wind energy. Forecasts are extremely reliable over a 24-hour window, meaning that the world of meteorology can already supply a product of immensely high quality to operators in the electricity sector.»
You have often emphasised the importance of spreading scientific knowledge. Do you believe that Italians are sufficiently aware of the future that awaits them, in terms of the climate and its consequences?
«There’s still a lack of awareness, and a lot of confusion. The media often even spreads “fake news” about the climate, confusing the public. There’s no proper basic literacy when it comes to new technologies, like solar panels and heat pumps, which people can install in their homes. A lot of technological progress is being hindered by superstition and urban legends based on disinformation. I often find myself talking to people expressing opinions on devices they've never used. If I could, I’d dedicate a TV programme or awareness-raising initiative to explaining how these tools work and to debunking the false ideas surrounding them.»
Digitalisation and artificial intelligence are tools being used more and more to monitor and predict climate dynamics and their effects. What do you think of them?
«I think that they are nothing more than tools, which shouldn’t be accorded any more importance than they actually have. Artificial intelligence can certainly help to process enormous quantities of data, but it’s human intelligence
that counts. Trusting the future and scientific planning exclusively to AI would be a mistake. We always have to use common sense. If students just starting out get used to using AI to find immediate answers, innovation will dry up. We have to hold onto our critical faculties and the innovative imagination of the human mind. Artificial intelligence should be a practical tool that helps us to find information quickly, but we can’t ask it for the solution to problems. In my field, these tools are useful for rapidly aggregating data in quantities that would otherwise take much longer; however, it remains up to human beings to interpret them and to innovate.»