Texas knocked out cold: could it ever happen in Italy?

Snow, ice and blackouts have paralysed Texas in the last weeks of February 2021. The US state, which is normally associated with sun-drenched cowboys and horseback heroes immortalised by iconic cinematographic works, has become the symbol of possible climate disasters in the near future. The generally sunny and warm state was hit by an unprecedented snow and ice storm, with temperatures that fell far below zero for a prolonged period of time, causing extraordinary discomfort for its citizens. Nothing on a similar scale has happened in the last 100 years.

“The events in Texas show us again how climate change can cause extreme events, never previously observed in the past, putting our energy infrastructures under serious strain. There was no other option than cutting off millions of consumers, who were left stranded in the dark and with no heating during an extreme cold snap,” observed Fabio Genoese, Strategy Manager at Terna.

As temperatures continued to fall, many people turned on their heating at the same time, in an attempt to protect themselves against the abnormal cold weather that sunk on the area. The demand for electricity, it follows, exceeded the predicted levels for the season. At the same time, the freezing cold put a large proportion of power generation out of operation, causing an imbalance between supply and demand in the electricity network. Essentially, the infrastructure was caught unprepared when the cold and snow started to tighten their grip. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the company that manages Texas’ electricity grid, was forced to order rotational load shedding in order to stabilise the system and avoid an uncontrolled blackout.

Republican politicians, led by the Texas governor Greg Abbott, blamed the crisis on renewable energy. In reality, according to data made available by ERCOT, the blackout was mainly attributable to “problems in the natural gas system”, that together with coal and nuclear makes up 80% of Texas’ energy supply in winter.

To fully understand what caused the situation in Texas, one central aspect must be considered. Texas has an independent electricity grid, practically separate from other states in the east and west of the country. This means that, in contrast to other US states, as well as Europe and Italy, the relative isolation of the electricity grid cannot rebalance the system in the event of faults or power surges. If the same situation had taken place elsewhere, the large interconnections would have been able to compensate, at least partially, the peak demand caused by the cold snap, without having to cut customers off in rotation. Texas does not impose regulations on its suppliers to maintain suitable reserve margins that would be capable of satisfying electricity demand and stabilising the grid, whatever the circumstances. In the face of the storm, the state was essentially helpless.

“To avoid similar disasters in the future, it is fundamental to further invest in the resilience of grid infrastructure. Furthermore, the event shows the importance of guaranteeing suitable reserve margins, supplied by power generators and storage, taking into account an increasingly flexible demand”, explained Fabio Genoese. "Such a reserve must be dimensioned appropriately to cover even extreme climate events, and it must be ensured that these reserve margins are truly available, for example by means of dedicated contracts that reward availability but also stipulate penalties for operators who are not available. In other words: we need a safety mechanism like the Capacity Market”.

The resilience of electricity systems has become essential for tackling extreme meteorological events, that climate change has already begun to cause all over the world. The circumstances of the Texas crisis demonstrate that no supplier should be so ill-prepared, rather they must enact fundamental countermeasures to guarantee the safety of their consumers.

Precisely for this reason, the 2021-2025 Terna Industrial Plan set out €8.9 billion of investments (+22% compared to the previous plan) to manage the energetic transition and guarantee the integration of renewable sources. Terna has allocated €1.2 billion for safety investments and for necessary improvements to protect the dynamic stability of the electricity system and to respect the goals enshrined in the agreements signed at the International Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris in December 2015. The 2025 Plan sets forth concrete measures and innovative solutions designed to combat the risks associated with adverse climate events, the frequency of which has increased in the wake of the alteration of the climate, as well as reinforcing our transmission capacity and interconnections with foreign countries.