Terna updates its industrial plan: 17.7 billion euros in investments over five years

An increase in investments; territorial planning to facilitate the integration of renewable sources into the grid; strengthening the Group's role in underpinning Italy’s electric security and energy independence: Terna is carrying out a massive campaign of interventions, backed up by record financial resources, in order to achieve all these objectives. In fact, the update to the Industrial Plan sets out investments in the amount of 17.7 billion euros, up 7% compared to the 16.5 billion euros contained in the previous plan, with a historic record of 16.6 billion euros allocated for the development of the national electricity grid.

In particular, by expanding grid infrastructure, the Group aims to integrate the growing capacity for renewable generation in order to ensure greater energy independence for the national electricity system. In fact, thanks to the development of the renewable capacity which will be installed over the coming years, it will be possible to reduce Italy’s dependence on commodities imported from other countries.

An overview of the targets of the European Green Deal. The update to the Industrial Plan is an effective response to the expectations set by the European Union in relation to energy development. The European Green Deal requires a reduction of at least 55% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The Italian targets for decarbonisation by 2030 are also highly ambitious, in line with those established at European level. The Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), updated to 2024, requires that 63% of final consumption in the electricity sector be covered by renewable production by 2030, with the nation’s installed solar and wind capacity needing to rise to 107 GW compared to 50 GW at the end of 2024.

Terna’s updated Industrial Plan takes these requirements into consideration, providing for a series of interventions to pave the way for reduced greenhouse gas emissions, greater integration of renewables, and a more efficient management of energy flows in order to guarantee a more secure and independent energy future for Italy. The sustainability of investments remains a priority: 99% of the interventions covered by the update to the 2024-2028 Industrial Plan are deemed sustainable, pursuant to the eligibility criteria introduced by the European Taxonomy.

The energy and digital transition. To support the national modernisation effort, Terna is pursuing a twin energy and digital transition. Alongside the development of the electricity grid, a particular focus is being given to increasing security levels, in terms of both protecting physical assets and of cybersecurity, with innovative technological and digital solutions designed specifically to overcome the new challenges. These include, for example, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, which requires investment in more resilient infrastructure coupled with a strategic long-term vision.

Regulated Activities in Italy: record investments. The package of investments in Regulated Activities included in the update to the 2024-2028 Industrial Plan amounts to 16.6 billion euros, a 7% increase compared to the previous plan, allocated for the development of the national transmission grid. Thanks to advances made in the area of execution, these investments won’t have to wait long before being transformed into projects and interventions. In fact, around 90% of investment projects have already been authorised by the competent authorities (79% in March 2024), while 80% of projects are already covered by supply contracts (compared to 70% in March 2024).

These numbers paint a clear picture of Terna’s ability to achieve predetermined targets within the specified timeframe by engaging in authorization processes and cooperating with local authorities. Within the overall package of interventions for Regulated Activities, the update to the Plan includes an investment of 10.8 billion euros for the development of the national transmission grid and, specifically, to boost energy exchange capacity between different market zones and to resolve grid congestions, in addition to the integration of energy generated from renewable sources and improvements to service quality.

The main projects set out in the Plan include the Tyrrhenian Link, the submarine power line which will connect Sardinia, Sicily and Campania; the submarine Bolano-Annunziata connection between Calabria and Sicily; and the 380 kV power lines from Colunga-Calenzano between Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany, and from Chiaramonte-Gulfi-Ciminna in Sicily. In addition to these are the cross-border interconnection projects: Elmed, the first direct-current submarine connection between Europe and Africa, which will link Italy and Tunisia; the infrastructure between Sardinia, Corsica and the Italian mainland (Sa.Co.I.3); and the doubling of the interconnection between Italy and Greece (GR.ITA.2). At the same time, investments will be made in the development of the Italian grid, as described in the 2025-2034 Development Plan. These include the Adriatic Link (the submarine electrical infrastructure which will connect Abruzzo and Marche); the direct-current Milan-Montalto power line which will link Lazio and Lombardy via Tuscany, Liguria and Emilia-Romagna; the Central Link between Umbria and Tuscany; the Adriatic Backbone (a direct-current submarine connection between Foggia and Forlì); and the 380 kV Montecorvino-Benevento power line in Campania.

In addition to new grid developments, the Plan has earmarked some of the investments for security and asset efficiency: 3.6 billion euros, primarily for the rationalisation of existing infrastructures and the replacement of obsolete components. These investments will also be put towards interventions to digitalise the transmission grid, with new, data-driven technologies, AI-based solutions, and the use of robotics. In order to strengthen and enhance the technical and technological functions of the national electricity system, 2.3 billion euros will be allocated to the development of the Safety Plan. «With the results achieved in 2024, thanks to the efforts and the expertise of our people, we are continuing to create value for our stakeholders and confirming our position as a Group going from strength to strength on the national energy scene, with a full awareness of the responsibility entrusted to us: enabling the energy transition while guaranteeing the highest levels of transmission service quality, at the lowest possible cost for citizens and businesses», declared Giuseppina Di Foggia, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager of Terna.

Growing contributions from market activities. The contributions made by Non-Regulated Activities to Terna’s business mainly take the form of developing innovative technological and digital solutions to support the energy transition. This is also the goal of the new corporate structure for Terna Energy Solutions, the Group company which manages market activities and, through its subsidiaries, provides a point of reference when it comes to strategic skills for companies’ digital and energy transition. Announced in March 2025, the new structure also shakes up the role of Terna Energy Solutions’ subsidiaries: Tamini, a leading Italian company in the transformer sector; Brugg, a benchmark company in the field of on-land cables; and Altenia, a company which combines system integrator activities with expertise in the design, construction, maintenance and efficiency of medium- and high-voltage systems, renewables and battery storage systems.

These industrial activities under the Terna umbrella will contribute to the completion of the major projects set out in the update to the Industrial Plan by providing essential supplies and strategic services, as well as aiding the development, operation and maintenance of the National Transmission Grid. In the wake of this reorganisation, Non-Regulated Activities will make an overall contribution of around 730 million euros to the Group’s EBITDA for the plan, +22% compared to the previous plan.

2.4 billion euros for the digital transformation. The company’s development horizon also remains focused on innovation, as made clear by the planned investments in new technologies and digitalisation. In total, Terna has planned to invest 2.4 billion euros in the company’s digital transformation, an increase of over 20% compared to the 2 billion euros set out in the previous plan. This significant rise is testament to the Group’s eagerness to embrace innovation, with projects ranging from the digitalisation of construction sites to the use of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors on infrastructure, as well as other tools for the creation of Digital Twins, which will enable remote analyses and planning of interventions for the protection and maintenance of assets. At the same time, heavier investments in cybersecurity will also be made, in order to increase the security of the Group’s digital and physical assets.

Main results expected and rating confirmation. The path towards the modernisation of the national electricity grid, as laid out in the Industrial Plan, runs alongside Terna’s development and supports its growth. The very adoption of the initiatives and the deployment of the investments set out by the 2024-2028 update will have a significant impact on the Group’s results. It is anticipated that revenues in 2028 will have grown to 5.19 billion euros, compared to 4.6 billion euros under the previous plan. Similarly, EBITDA is expected to reach 3.36 billion euros compared to 3.25 billion euros under the previous plan, while the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the EBITDA will be about 9% throughout the plan. This trend will also be reflected in the net profit, which will climb from 1.08 billion in 2025 to 1.19 billion in 2028.

«The plan put forward is extremely solid and sustainable in financial terms», emphasised Francesco Beccali, the CFO of Terna, during the presentation of the update to the 2024-2028 Industrial Plan. «We believe that we will be able to maintain our current rating levels without issuing hybrid instruments, but we are committed to doing so if necessary». Following the presentation of the update to the Plan, Moody’s and S&P confirmed Terna’s long-term ratings, which they evaluate, respectively, as Baa2 and BBB+ with a stable outlook, a notch above that held by the Italian Republic.