The 'underwater’ domain: the new global race is played out in the ocean depths

In recent years, global attention has shifted to a new El Dorado: the underwater world. While activities on the surface of the sea, such as tourism and maritime trade, continue to drive the world economy, the ocean depths are where the real opportunities lie. In the depths of the sea we find critical infrastructures such as submarine cables for data traffic and electricity, but also gas and oil pipelines, plus mineral resources whose potential is set to grow. But the sea is not just an economic resource: it is humanity's original habitat and a vital source of nourishment. Any future development below the sea surface must therefore be guided by a sustainable approach that takes into account the environmental impact and respects the marine ecosystem. This awareness has made oceanic ridges a key element in the international politics and power strategies of many states, deeply influencing military operations too.

Underwater infrastructures: vital and vulnerable. One of the most critical issues concerns the security of the infrastructure for transporting energy and data, as over 95% of the world's internet traffic and 90% of hydrocarbon supplies travel via submarine cables laid on the seabed. The laying and maintenance of these cables are complex and costly operations involving a range of advanced technologies and specialised skills. The process begins with a detailed mapping of the seabed. In shallow water, the technique varies: submarine ploughs are used on sandy bottoms to dig trenches, while the cables are protected with concrete tiles on rocky bottoms. At greater depths, the cables are simply laid and unwound automatically. Cables for data transmission are fibre optic, while those for energy transmission are copper. After installation, the entire infrastructure undergoes rigorous testing to ensure reliable transmission of data and energy across the oceans.

Given the growing dependence of economies on this infrastructure, submarine cables could become strategic targets for targeted attacks, with possible disastrous consequences for the economy and international security. An example of the vulnerability of this data transmission system occurred with the alleged sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines and internet cables in the Red Sea. Although it did not cause a communications blockade, the economic damage could have been considerable, since 17% of global data passes through the Red Sea. In addition, there is the serious risk of espionage, with technologically-advanced powers trying to intercept strategic information to gain competitive advantages. Finally, threats to submarine cables can also be accidental, such as collisions with ships or seismic events, that could interrupt the flow of data and/or energy. Whatever the cause of the damage, it is clear that we can no longer afford to put such important infrastructure at risk.

The demand for submarine cables will increase rapidly in the coming years due to the growing demand for data, fuelled by the expansion of cloud services and artificial intelligence. Furthermore, the shift to more sustainable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, will require more submarine connections to transport energy from offshore parks to the mainland. Given the crucial importance of these infrastructures for global connectivity and energy supply, it is crucial to increase awareness of these vulnerabilities as well as the level of protection from both a physical and cyber integrity perspective.

Geopolitics of submarine cables: challenges and evolutions. In the past, submarine cables and pipelines benefited from some protection due to inaccessibility and lack of knowledge of the seabed. Less than 20% of the seabed has been mapped to date, leaving vast unexplored potential from both an economic and scientific point of view, but also making comprehensive surveillance difficult. With increasing tensions between the West, Russia and China, the situation has become increasingly critical. The importance of this infrastructure has triggered a race for control, with the US currently in a dominant position as the main owner of submarine cables. China is however rapidly gaining ground, aiming to control around 60% of them by 2025. Such a goal is by no means unrealistic, considering the rapidly growing investments in this sector by state-owned enterprises and Chinese giants such as Huawei.

Private individuals in particular play an important role in the control of submarine cables. Most of these cables are not government-owned, but operated by international consortia of private, usually telephone companies that rent out their use to internet companies amid an intricate maze of international jurisdictions and laws. There has been a marked change of course in recent years: the Big Techs (Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft) have started to invest directly in the management of these networks, raising new considerations about geopolitical balances and economic control. In response to these challenges, some countries are investing in the construction of new submarine cables to diversify connection routes, reduce dependence on other countries or operators, and increase the capacity and resilience of these strategic assets. They carry out measures such as constant monitoring, cooperation with maritime authorities and military defence of submarine infrastructure. Despite such efforts, cable security is not always guaranteed.

The battle for the extraction of metals and rare earth elements is moving into the oceans. The seabed features much more than gas pipelines and fibre optic cables. It is rich in unexplored energy and mineral resources, including rare earth deposits and polymetallic nodules containing manganese, nickel, cobalt and copper. In addition, hydrothermal springs form sulphide deposits rich in precious metals such as silver, gold and zinc. These elements are crucial for the production of green technologies such as batteries, wind turbines and solar panels. The potential is enormous, but at what price for the underwater ecosystems? The ocean floor, one of the last pristine habitats on Earth, is at risk of irreversible damage from underwater mining. In addition to direct damage, experts and environmental associations point to significant risks of noise and light pollution. Not to mention climate change, the effects of which can have a major impact on maritime space and diving operations. Despite these variables, some governments are still ready to give the green light.

In this context, it is useful to recall international regulations governing the vast world of oceans. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a framework for the management of mining activities on the seabed. This treaty establishes the rights of states in their territorial waters, while the remaining 61% of the seabed is considered mankind’s common heritage and regulated by the International Seabed Authority (Isa), founded in 1994. Despite pressure from the industry, the Isa has not yet authorised commercial exploitation of the seabed but has issued 31 exploration licences, which impose strict environmental protection clauses, impact assessments and detailed plans as well as annual reports. China already holds five of them, more than any other country, followed by Russia with three contracts, and Norway, which has already authorised Arctic extractions. In contrast, the United States, which has never joined UNCLOS and is only an Isa observer, has yet to comment on mining concessions, adding further complexity to the international maritime regulatory landscape.

Taking into account the current scenario, in which the management of underwater infrastructures is predominantly the responsibility of civil or private entities, and states are expanding their presence and influence over the seas both on the surface and in the depths, experts believe it will be increasingly important for governments and international organisations to adopt a new military strategy to protect the seabed from potential coercive actions in the use of energy resources and other forms of hybrid threats.

The race for underwater dominance: Italy's role. For a country surrounded by the sea like Italy, maritime space becomes of strategic interest, and even more so the part extending from the surface to the seabed. This is also evident because of our country's central position in the Mediterranean. Despite occupying only 1% of the world's water surface, the Mediterranean Sea is crossed by over 20% of maritime traffic and 16% of global internet traffic, connecting three continents. This centrality makes it vital in economic and trade flows, but also the scene of geopolitical challenges and disputes where more than 20 countries confront each other over territorial and maritime issues, including the delimitation of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves. These challenges go far beyond the borders of the Mediterranean, encompassing the Red Sea, the part of the Atlantic close to North Africa and Europe, and the Black Sea, i.e. the so-called enlarged Mediterranean.

These implications require foreign policy to consider both economic and security and defence aspects in order to protect national independence and critical infrastructure but also, consequently, a high presence and commitment for the Navy, which, in response to these challenges, has set up a National Centre for the Underwater Domain. This structure acts as an incubator of knowledge and technologies to explore the submarine domain and defend critical infrastructures, thanks to inter-ministerial governance that brings together the Navy, academia, science and industry. In addition, Italy is developing a framework law for the blue economy, which will regulate mining in territorial waters, strengthening the country's position in international discussions on 'deep sea mining'.

The technological arsenal for the safety and management of underwater resources. The control, surveillance and security of underwater space requires not only military means and regulations, but also advanced technologies. Submarines remain crucial for naval defence due to their ability to evade detection by exploiting the opacity of the sea. Technological innovations have made submarines, both conventional and nuclear, very complex, quiet and versatile, expanding their functions. In addition to submarines, autonomous resident drones are revolutionising underwater operations, enabling activities at great depths without a human crew on board.

These vehicles can remain at sea for about 12 months and reach a maximum depth of 3,000 metres for control and maintenance activities of submarine infrastructure. But these drones can do much more: from the studying and monitoring of fish species to digitally reconstructing the seabed, from monitoring water quality to emergency response and underwater first aid. All while reducing environmental impact and safety risks. In an increasingly connected and competitive world, it is inevitable that we consider the underwater world as a real operational domain, largely unexplored but of great strategic importance. From the dangers of pollution to the preservation of biodiversity, from the defence of critical infrastructures to the responsible management of marine resources, these are all issues that are now on the agenda of decision-makers and will increasingly require global collaboration to ensure a sustainable future for our blue planet.