In the name of climate #10: have we reached the point of no return in the Arctic?

«The disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic is one of the first landmines in this minefield, that we set off first when we push warming too far. (…) [O]ne can essentially ask if we haven’t already stepped on this mine and already set off the beginning of the explosion». This is how physicist and climatologist Markus Rex described the possible irreversible melting of the ice in the Arctic during summer months, due to climate change caused by the greenhouse gas emissions of human activity.

If fully melted, it could have serious consequences, especially on the climate in the areas bordering on the Arctic, like Greenland. That’s not all: the higher average temperature in the region brings with it side effects such as higher sea levels and a change in ocean currents, thus impacting the life of entire ecosystems where millions of species live.

These changes would also be one of the causes of more and more extreme atmospheric events occurring each year. Rex discussed all of this during the presentation of the initial conclusions of the biggest scientific expedition to the ice around the North Pole, which he led, carried out between 2019 and 2020.

With a budget of € 140 million, the project involved 300 scientists from over 15 different countries, and over 389 days of activity 150 terabytes of data were collected on the atmosphere and the ecosystems of the Arctic, an ocean that covers the most northerly part of Earth and is one of the areas most exposed to global warming – in fact, it is warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

The first results from the analysis of the data collected in that area show that, during the summer months, the size of the ice shelves – the sea ice – reduced more quickly than in the past, halving over the course of a decade. Compared to the 1890s, on the other hand, when the Arctic’s temperatures were measured for the first time, an increase of around 10°C was recorded.

Ice and snow are less present in the area, which is more and more characterised by the presence of rainfall and wide stretches of open sea where there were once enormous quantities of ice. Their biggest reduction was recorded in 2007 and previous levels have not been seen since; it is not surprising, therefore, that in 2019 the second highest temperature of the last century was recorded in the Arctic.

The complex conditions of the Arctic are also concerning in light of the general trend in global warming, and of the inadequate results achieved until now to combat it in less vulnerable areas, despite promises from various parties – institutions and otherwise – in recent years.

Thoman, one of the authors of a report on the Arctic, overseen by the US government climate agency (NOAA), is particularly alarmed: «[The report, Ed.] describes an Arctic region that continues along a path that is warmer, less frozen and biologically changed in ways that were scarcely imaginable even a generation ago. Nearly everything in the Arctic, from ice and snow to human activity, is changing so quickly that there is no reason to think that in thirty years much of anything will be as it is today».