Chokepoints: the crossroads on which global trade depends

The Mediterranean is one of the global highways of trade in raw materials and goods. Gas, oil and other goods essential for Italy and Europe transit through its maritime routes: even though it represents just 1% of ocean surfaces, 20% of global traffic passes through its waters. It is a massive trade route for three continents — Europe, Africa and Asia — whose commercial survival depends on two key chokepoints: theSuez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the link between Africa and the Middle East which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. These are narrow points, vital yet vulnerable, with the capacity for far-reaching impacts on the entire European system of energy and trade.

For Italy — which imports over 75% of its energy needs — these passages are essential arteries. Their closure, even temporarily, could have undesirable consequences: ships forced to circumnavigate Africa, a three-fold increase in transit times, costs which would be passed on to businesses and consumers.

That is why, in the context of increasing geopolitical instability and tensions in the Red Sea, the development of interconnected energy infrastructures has taken on a strategic dimension. In this arena, Terna has emerged not only as a TSO but also as a driver of resilience: its interconnections, its submarine cables and the design of an increasingly robust grid are central elements in mitigating potential risks related to maritime chokepoints.

Global chokepoints and the Mediterranean: data and trends. According to Rystad Energy — Norway’s largest energy consultancy firm — the world’s five most critical maritime chokepoints handled approximately 71.3 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day in 2023, plus about 26 billion cubic feet of LNG (liquefied natural gas) per day. These figures highlight the extent to which global energy transit depends on a few geographic corridors.

Of these, the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are also central for Mediterranean Europe. The Suez Canal accounts for an average of 12% of global maritime trade and up to 30% of global containerised traffic. Any incident, such as that involving the Ever Given in 2021, reveals just how fragile this artery can be.

In the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb is the mandatory gateway to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf: about 10% of global maritime trade passes through here. Even a partial disruption of this route would force ships to travel around the Cape of Good Hope, adding miles, time and costs.

Italy’s response to geographic vulnerability. Despite being surrounded by the sea, Italy does not have significant internal energy reserves. It imports a substantial share of its gas and oil by sea, which makes it vulnerable to any disruptions in maritime routes. In the case of critical events, ships are forced to take detours: alternative routes involve doubling or tripling time-scales, higher fuel consumption and increased insurance costs. This puts pressure on the final prices of gas and on supply contracts. Moreover, any delays in the supply of petroleum derivatives can have a knock-on effect on electricity markets, where gas or combined-cycle power substations play a backup role during peak times.

In recent years, Europe and Italy have accelerated the construction of cross-border electricity interconnections: energy corridors in every sense, which reduce dependence on maritime routes. For Terna, Italy’s national transmission grid operator, these infrastructures are the key to resilience because they allow the import and exchange of electricity with neighbouring countries, balancing supply and demand even in complex situations. From the Italy-France connection to that between Italy-Greece, from Montenegro to Tunisia, the new HVDC backbones represent a “safety net” for the entire system. They not only facilitate the integration of renewables, but also create an interconnected European grid capable of absorbing global upheavals. In the event of a crisis at a chokepoint, Italy can offset gas or oil shortages by increasing the exchange of electricity from abroad, limiting impacts on grid stability and on consumers.

The current context. Thanks to action by Terna, Italy is now connected with seven countries (Austria, France, Greece, Malta, Montenegro, Slovenia and Switzerland) through 30 power lines, a foreign network that constitutes an “energy gateway” to the continent: not a mere channel, but a security buffer for the management of potential energy shocks. In its Grid Development Plan, Terna outlines the criteria with which it plans its works: availability, resilience, integration of renewables, reduced environmental impact, European cohesion. The plan sets out an increase in transport capacity with foreign countries of about 40% over current values, including all future interconnection projects.

Geopolitics, technology, infrastructure. The response to the vulnerabilities of chokepoints requires technological and infrastructural solutions, making interconnections, resilient grids, storage and the digitisation of the electricity system into elements of national security, no less strategic than the naval fleet or an international agreement. This is why Italy’s energy future depends on its ability to connect territories and diversify risks. While maritime chokepoints may remain inevitable, their impact can be reduced by developing an even more flexible electricity system, capable of integrating renewable sources and constantly communicating with the grids of neighbouring countries.