Numbers don’t lie, but if they are to be transformed into national strategies, they require models capable of anticipating what’s around the corner. This is the core of the activities carried out by RSE - Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (Energy System Research) and of the Department led by Michele Benini: a scientific steering group in every sense, which supports the Government and ARERA (the Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and Environment) with the complex architecture of decarbonisation. In this interview, the Director gives us a detailed overview of the current status of the energy transition in Italy: from record achievements in photovoltaics and electrochemical storage, to the impact of geopolitics on consumption. It’s a challenge that combines mathematical precision with institutional needs, in which the resilience of the grids and the flexibility of the electricity system become the pillars on which national energy security rests.
Modelling the future of energy: how science can serve the transition
We talk predictive algorithms, the record growth in photovoltaics and the challenge of resilience with Michele Benini, Director of the Energy Systems Development Department at RSE, the scientific outrider supporting institutions in their journey towards the 2030 and 2050 targets.
How do RSE, and the Department that you lead in particular, support policy-makers and ARERA in pursuing the decarbonisation objectives of the entire energy system?
«RSE in general, and specifically my own Energy Systems Development Department, have long supported the Government and a string of different Ministries — from the Ministry of Economic Development to the Ministry of the Ecological Transition and the present-day Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security — with matters related to system planning. Looking back, we’ve covered a lot of ground: I’m thinking of the Roundtable on the Decarbonisation of the Economy in 2016, the 2017 National Energy Strategy, and all the crucial stepping stones after that, like the NIECP (National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan) in 2019, the 2050 Long-Term Strategy, the 2022 Plan for Ecological Transition, and all the way up to the most recent version of the NIECP in 2024. That’s not to mention the National Hydrogen Strategy, the National Sustainable Nuclear Platform and the Strategic Framework for the AFI (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure) Regulation between 2025 and 2026. What’s more, we don’t offer support with energy planning solely at central level, but to the Regions too: we’ve worked a lot with Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Molise, and are adding others to the fold.
All of this work is based on complex mathematical models, involving hundreds of thousands of equations that serve to calculate the optimal development of the system over a given period of time. In practice, they aim to determine how to minimise the overall costs of investing in and managing energy technologies, starting from certain baseline conditions — such as trends in fossil fuel prices, the cost of CO2, growth in GDP or in population — and while respecting clearly defined constraints, like the actual potential of renewables, with the goal of reducing emissions and improving efficiency.
The scenarios that we create using these models should not be seen as “predictions” of the future, but as exercises in asking “what if?”. This allows policy-makers to assess the real impact of a specific measure before approving it. We also support the Government with the more technical side of drafting laws and decrees, potentially when transposing European directives or defining systems of incentives. Then, this entire corpus of regulations is put into practice through ARERA resolutions. It’s essential for the regulator to conduct a sound analysis on the impact of regulations, and we’re there to provide technical support with simulators dedicated to the electricity market and to dispatching. For example, on behalf of ARERA, we’ve recently evaluated the impact of abolishing the PUN — the single national price for electricity (Prezzo Unico Nazionale) — and of switching to zonal prices for industrial and commercial users. We’ve also analysed bids on the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) between 2023 and 2024 to monitor any improper behaviour with regard to generation capacity under the terms of REMIT (the Regulation on Wholesale Energy Market Integrity and Transparency).»
As a Director at RSE, you have a central part in planning the energy transition in Italy. Looking at the European targets for 2030 and 2050, what mature technologies are currently being harnessed by Italy to greatest effect?
«In recent years, we’ve been seeing a growth in photovoltaics driven above all by the drop in prices linked to China’s surplus production capacity, even if costs have been experiencing a slight uptick just lately. To give an exact account, as of 30 April 2026 we had over 45.7 GW in installed capacity, with more than two million plants. Last year, we achieved 6.7 GW in installations: if we continue on this trajectory, we’ll be close to the 7.2 GW per year we would need to meet the NIECP target of 79.3 GW by 2030.
Another area showing impressive development is electrochemical storage systems. We’ve exceeded 930,000 units — around 11.7 GWh — paired with renewables to maximise self-consumption. This is in addition to another 7.3 GWh in standalone format, with excellent growth prospects thanks to the Capacity Market and MACSE auctions (MACSE is an acronym for the Electricity Storage Procurement Mechanism). Once again, the main driver here was the price of batteries, which has fallen to an eighth of 2013 figures according to BloombergNEF. It should be mentioned that this market is almost wholly dominated by China, with a global share of greater than 83%. To give an idea of their competitive advantage, the average price of batteries in Europe in 2025 was 131 dollars per kilowatt-hour, while in China it was a third less at barely 84. We can look at a giant like CATL, which controls 30% of the global market all by itself: it has more than 130,000 employees, 20,000 of whom focus exclusively on Research and Development. In 2024 they managed over 43,000 patents, averaging almost 17 per day. All this goes to show that this technology, despite being mature and already widely used, is still evolving enormously and has immense scope for improvement.
When it comes to wind power, meanwhile, there is plenty of opportunity for acceleration: installed capacity has reached around 13.9 GW and is currently growing at a rate of about 650 MW per year. To stay on track with NIECP 2030 objectives (28.1 GW), it would be a strategic move to progressively pick up our pace, to achieve an installation rate of close to 3 GW per year.
The other two major levers for decarbonisation are electric cars and heat pumps. In the first four months of 2026, sales of purely electric cars (BEVs) grew by 72.8% over the previous year, thanks in part to the new incentives. Despite this, their 8.5% share of our market is still a far cry from the European average, which reached 22% in April 2026. In other words, there is still immense unrealised potential in Italy which could be tapped into both with the arrival of cheaper electric models and with the high prices of petrol and diesel, driven up by the crisis between the United States and Iran, which is also generating interest in used EVs.
In any case, the spread of electric cars is essential because their efficiency is three times greater than that of traditional engines. The same is true of heat pumps, which turn out four kilowatt-hours of renewable heat for every one kilowatt-hour consumed. We’ve seen a drop-off in the domestic sphere, naturally, following the end of the Superbonus incentive, while the commercial sector continues to show strong growth. The electrification of consumption in Italy still offers lots of room for further development, including in light of electricity price levels. Under these circumstances, further accelerations in relation to renewable sources and storage systems would be strategic, in order to gradually pave the way for a “de-linking” from gas prices. Recent geopolitical dynamics, from the conflict in Ukraine to tensions in the Middle East, demonstrate how energy is not just a factor in competitiveness, but also a key element of national security.»
What’s the most complex challenge in “translating” mathematical models and energy scenarios into laws and decrees? In other words, how do you reconcile the precision of scientific research with institutional needs and time frames?
«We have to bear in mind that the models we develop are, by definition, an approximation of reality. The more accurate the data used as input, the better the result; but obtaining quality data is never straightforward. On top of that, the mathematical models make it possible to identify an optimum theoretical solution; at the application stage, however, it has to be integrated with a wide-ranging set of operational and contextual constraints, including regulatory and decision-making issues.
In any case, the models are still an invaluable tool as they allow policy-makers to compare and contrast different options. The best approach is to deliberate on the differences between the different routes before us, rather than on the absolute values, as any margins of error tend to offset each other to give us much more reliable answers.»
What methodologies and tools does RSE develop and apply for the planning and operation of the transmission grid? And what are the main drivers of the strategic direction?
«At RSE, we work with an integrated package of methodologies and tools that cover the entire life cycle of the electricity system, from long-term planning to near-real-time grid management. The common denominator that we always consider is system resilience.
In terms of transmission grid planning, we develop models that combine technical and economic evaluations, probabilistic analyses and simulations of future scenarios. This allows us to make comparisons between different technologies — including innovative solutions such as hybrid AC (Alternating Current) and DC (Direct Current) grids — and to map out the best course, even at very high levels of uncertainty. But we don’t stop at the theory behind planning: we do a lot of work on the everyday management of the grid. We develop dynamic analyses of stability and security, tools to calculate operational risk and probabilistic models that can predict multiple faults or errors in production and consumption forecasts.
The true strength of our approach lies in merging these worlds. We’ve created proper, unified frameworks that coherently link up planning and management, using dynamic risk indicators and advanced predictive analyses which offer support almost in real time. We have worked closely with Terna to develop many of these solutions, such as the grid resilience methods already entered into the Grid Code, which are the result of a historic collaboration between RSE and the TSO (Transmission System Operator).
If we look at what guides our strategy, there are a number of indisputable essentials. The first, obviously, is the energy transition: introducing a massive proportion of non-programmable renewables into the grid brings with it immense variability compared to the past, which demands a total shift in the mentality of our analysis models. The second cornerstone is flexibility, which is to say the grid’s capacity to harness new resources like storage, active demand management and distributed generation, in order to keep the system efficient and dynamic. The third factor, which is vital in the present day, is resilience against the extreme weather events that are becoming increasingly frequent. It’s no longer enough to plan a grid which is secure under normal conditions: today, it must be able to withstand, adapt and resume functioning swiftly following an emergency. Finally, there’s technological and regulatory innovation: on the one hand, this gives us incredible tools like artificial intelligence and advanced data analysis; on the other, it demands that these solutions go hand-in-hand with a constantly evolving framework of rules.
In short, the task before RSE is this: to make the most advanced tools and methodologies available to institutions in order to govern this transformation, while always guaranteeing the reliability, efficiency and security of the electricity system.»